KMZ last updated Sat, 15 Jul 2023 08:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Calvin Forecast Advisory
352 WTPZ23 KNHC 130849 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 145.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
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OpenStreetMap
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
OpenStreetMap
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
Advisory #012 Forecast Track [kmz] – Tropical Storm Cindy (AT4/AL042023)
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2023 02:35:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bret Public Advisory
000 WTNT33 KNHC 230551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 200 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 ...CENTER OF BRET NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for... * Dominica * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Bret. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.9 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea today and Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Grantly Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) in thunderstorm activity well to the east of Bret's center. Tropical storm conditions are also still being reported on St. Lucia and Martinique. The minimum central pressure measured from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible. SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg