Earthquake: 2024-10-13 01:43HKT M6.2 [10.75N, 86.06W] off coast of Costa Rica http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=10.75&mlon=-86.06.
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Advisory #037 Forecast Track [kmz] – Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
KMZ last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 14:50:42 GMT
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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory
382 WTNT34 KNHC 091456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Advisory #001 Forecast Track [kmz] – Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142024)
KMZ last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:03:44 GMT
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Strong Earthquake Report M6.0 [14.08N, 124.92E] in Luzon, Philippines (05:34 HKT 02/10/2024)
Earthquake: 2024-10-02 05:19HKT M6.0 [14.08N, 124.92E] in Luzon, Philippines http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=14.08&mlon=124.92.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities
248 FOPZ11 KNHC 031435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion
345 WTNT42 KNHC 011453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Kirk's structure on satellite is gradually becoming better organized, with deep convective bands attempting to wrap around the center, though there still remains evidence that dry air could be getting into the core on the western side. Some of this less humid air could be getting imported due to subtle northerly mid-level shear above 20-kt as diagnosed by the ECMWF analysis this morning. With that said, we have received some fortuitous surface data from a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990 mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb. This intensity is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates but closest to the latest DPRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Kirk is still moving west-northwestward, estimated at 300/11 kt. This motion with perhaps a slight slowdown should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward and then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory and between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. While Kirk is stronger this morning, it is feeling some of the effects of the aforementioned mid-level shear, preventing convection from fully wrapping around the center. However, other environmental factors, namely warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures and plenty of deep-layer moisture, are quite conducive for strengthening. For now, the shear is anticipated to prevent a faster rate of intensification, but Kirk should become a hurricane later today. After 24 h, even the mid-level shear is expected to decrease, and a faster period of intensification is likely in the 24-60 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane at the end of this period. In addition, Kirk's wind field is also forecast to grow in size by the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5 shear begins to increase again with weakening beginning by that time. However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the guidance envelope early on but is near the higher end of the aids in 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Strong Earthquake Report M6.0 [17.31S, 66.68E] in Mauritius-Reunion Region (03:35 HKT 27/09/2024)
Earthquake: 2024-09-27 03:19HKT M6.0 [17.31S, 66.68E] in Mauritius-Reunion Region http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=-17.31&mlon=66.68.
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Advisory #019 Forecast Track [kmz] – Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
KMZ last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 14:35:50 GMT
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Strong Earthquake Report M6.3 [0.18S, 122.95E] in Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi (03:58 HKT 24/09/2024)
Earthquake: 2024-09-24 03:51HKT M6.3 [0.18S, 122.95E] in Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=-0.18&mlon=122.95.
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