Earthquake: 2021-07-24 20:52HKT M6.3 [30.1S, 176.4W] in Kermadec Islands Region http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=-30.1&mlon=-176.4.
Earthquake: 2021-07-22 05:15HKT M7.1 [7.1N, 82.7W] south of Panama http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=7.1&mlon=-82.7.
Earthquake: 2021-07-19 23:23HKT M6.0 [3.4S, 147.0E] over Bismarck Sea http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=-3.4&mlon=147.
Earthquake: 2021-07-18 04:56HKT M6.1 [6.9N, 82.6W] south of Panama http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=6.9&mlon=-82.6.
KMZ last updated Sun, 18 Jul 2021 02:39:50 GMT
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
Earthquake: 2021-07-10 08:44HKT M6.2 [2.9N, 126.6E] over Northern Molucca Sea http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=2.9&mlon=126.6.
000 WTUS81 KBOX 092101 HLSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-100515- Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 39 National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA AL052021 501 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 This product covers Southern New England **Elsa Has Moved Away - All Tropical Warnings Have Been Cancelled** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - All watches and warnings have been canceled * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * STORM INFORMATION: - About 90 miles east-northeast of Boston MA - 43.0N 69.5W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 35 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Elsa has moved off to the east, with improving conditions this evening. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Little to no rainfall is expected, however many rivers will continue to rise, with generally minor flooding expected. * WIND: Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time across Southern New England. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Do not enter flooded areas unless officials have given the all clear to return. NEXT UPDATE ----------- As it pertains to this event...this will be the last local statement issued by the National Weather Service in Boston/Norton MA regarding the effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area. $$ Nash
KMZ last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 02:53:55 GMT
TROPICAL STORM ELSA
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.