Taifun and Hurrican info page

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at 
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and 
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains 
offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized 
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in 
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the 
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
Honduras during the next couple of days.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. 

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown