Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion



000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100851
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

After the earlier burst of deep convection and the development of a 
small 10-nmi-wide low- to mid-level eye noted in passive microwave 
satellite imagery, convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature 
has eroded in the northwestern semicircle due to entrainment of dry 
air, along with some modest northwesterly vertical wind shear. A 
0314Z ASCAT-A overpass revealed peak winds of only 43 kt in the 
northeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) 
of 10-15 nmi. Satellite intensity estimates range from T3.5/55 kt 
from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS SATCON 
estimate of 53 kt and an ADT estimate of 59 kt. An average of these 
intensity estimates, and allowing for some undersampling by the 
scatterometer instrument due to Elida's small RMW, supports 
maintaining an intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. 
Both the forecast track and rationale remain straight-forward and 
basically unchanged from the previous advisory. Elida is expected to 
be steered west-northwestward by a deep layer ridge to the north for 
the next 72 hours or, followed by a westward motion on days 4 and 5 
when Elida will be weakening over much cooler waters and becoming a 
shallower cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance remains tightly 
packed and, thus, the new official forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory track, and lies near the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA 
consensus track models.

The brief intensity hiatus that Elida is experiencing is expected 
to be short-lived due to the cyclone's small RMW and the vertical 
shear forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 12-36 hour 
time frame. This should allow for Elida to strengthen -- possibly 
even rapidly -- during the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling 
off in the intensity due to the cyclone moving over sub-26C 
sea-surface temperatures (SST).  By 48-60 h, SSTs less than 25C and 
modest southwesterly vertical wind shear will combine to induce 
steady weakening. By 96 h or so, Elida is forecast to degenerate 
into a post-tropical cyclone. The new official intensity forecast is 
a little lower than the previous advisory, but is a little above 
the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 18.3N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Local Statement for Isaias (New York City, NY)



000
WTUS81 KOKX 041005
HLSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-041815-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
605 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**ISAIAS IS MOVING NORTH OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA** 


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern 
      Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, 
      Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, 
      Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, 
      Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens, 
      Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, 
      Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, 
      Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, 
      Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, 
      Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, 
      Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 360 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 
      450 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 36.3N 77.5W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 28 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias, located in inland Virginia, will continue
to move to north-northeast this morning along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast today, likely
moving over our area this afternoon and evening. However, confidence
continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards
and impacts.

The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong
winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and
dangerous rip currents. Additionally, a few tornadoes are possible.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected with a widespread 1 to 3 inches,
with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. The heaviest rain is
most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and
the Lower Hudson Valley this morning through this evening, and eastern
sections this afternoon into tonight. The strongest winds are likely
to occur across New York City Metro, Long Island, northeast New
Jersey, southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and southeast
Connecticut. Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the
coastal waters today and tonight. High surf and dangerous rip currents
are expected to continue along the ocean beaches Today through
Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish
quickly from southwest to northeast across the area late tonight into
Wednesday morning. 

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible 
extensive impacts across New Jersey, New York City, the Lower Hudson
Valley, and portions of southeastern Connecticut. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple 
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become 
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become 
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down 
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and 
      mudslides. 
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple 
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed 
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. 
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with 
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. 
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts 
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern 
Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage 
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings 
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile 
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight 
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater 
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several 
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access 
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent 
      in areas with above ground lines

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited 
impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in 
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along 
      immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas 
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread 
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip 
      currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and 
Southern Connecticut, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts 
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern 
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies 
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your 
home or business.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles 
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide 
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly 
ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood prone 
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded 
roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and 
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge 
zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find 
yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed 
evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large 
trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a 
boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong 
winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter 
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not 
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter 
options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news 
outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible 
changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive 
weather warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see 
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see 
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in New York NY around 12 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$



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Local Statement for Nine (Puerto Rico / V.I.)



000
WTCA82 TJSJ 290314
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-291115-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service San Juan PR  AL092020
1114 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

This product covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

**TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Interior, 
      Culebra, Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North 
      Central, Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and 
      Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, St Croix, St.Thomas...St. 
      John...and Adjacent Islands, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 510 miles east-southeast of San Juan PR or about 420 
      miles east-southeast of Saint Croix VI
    - 14.6N 59.4W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 25 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The official track has been shifted slightly south with similar 
intensity forecast, but little change in impacts is anticipated. A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Strong convection is now only 325 miles away. The disturbance
is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. 
This system is expected to bring flooding rains across Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. Virgin Islands, and generate possible life threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding, particularly across 
mainland Puerto Rico. Weather, marine and coastal conditions are 
expected to deteriorate starting on Wednesday afternoon with inclement 
weather continuing through Thursday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in 
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and 
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, 
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while 
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood 
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple 
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed 
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. 
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with 
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. 
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited 
to significant impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across 
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Potential impacts in 
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along 
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas 
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread 
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts 
across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Potential impacts 
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. If you
are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from tropical
systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being officially
recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect 
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before 
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations 
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical 
storm force wind.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for 
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to 
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in San Juan PR around 2 AM AST, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$



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