OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
KMZ last updated Fri, 03 Nov 2023 02:43:36 GMT
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OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
KMZ last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:44:54 GMT
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000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Otis has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm this evening, with the center on the eastern edge of a relatively new burst of deep convection. The overall satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the shear, recent microwave data indicate that Otis has notable low-level structure, with a ring observed in 37 GHz microwave data. While this can be associated with rapid intensification, none of the models show that intensity change occurring, seemingly due to persistent moderate shear and some dry air in the mid-levels. Still, it makes sense to stay on the high side of the guidance given the structure and very warm SSTs in the path. Thus, the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one, showing Otis near hurricane strength at landfall between 36-48 hours. Otis continues moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its east. This flow will likely cause the storm to move to the north-northwest or northwest through landfall. While most of the models respond by bringing Otis to the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday, the GFS model remains an outlier and keeps Otis weaker and offshore. The GFS solution seems very unlikely given the overall synoptic pattern, so the NHC track forecast will put little weight on its solution, keeping the official forecast about the same as the previous one, on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico on Tuesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
000 WTNT45 KNHC 220259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, along with radar imagery from Guadeloupe, indicate that the center of Tammy passed over the island of Barbuda a couple of hours ago. The hurricane continues to produce intense convection in a small CDO feature with some ill-defined bands north and northeast of the center. The eyewall has generally not been closed on the radar images. There are still some areas of strong convection affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles to the south of Tammy. Flight-level and SFMR winds along with Doppler velocity data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased slightly, but there was an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 78 kt from Barbuda. Based on a blend of the aircraft data and the Barbuda observation, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory. Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues on its north-northwestward trek with an estimated motion of 330/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, Tammy should turn northward while it moves along the western side of a large subtropical high. Then, the system should turn, at least temporarily, northeastward on the southeastern periphery of a mid-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Beginning around 3 days, the track forecast becomes challenging, since the global models indicate that the western Atlantic trough will bypass Tammy after 72 hours while it continues eastward. A ridge could then build in to the northwest of the system and cause it to turn to the left. As noted earlier, there is a very large spread in the track guidance in the latter part of the forecast period. There is low confidence in the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast positions. Tammy should remain over very warm waters with moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of days. So, some slight strengthening is still forecast. By 60 or 72 hours, increasing shear is likely to induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through early Sunday. 2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.8N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.8N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 20.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 22.6N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 23.1N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 25.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 27.5N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.