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OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
403 WTNT32 KNHC 170546 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 80.8W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
KMZ last updated Fri, 03 Nov 2023 02:43:36 GMT
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OpenStreetMap is a map of the world, created by people like you and free to use under an open license.
Hosting is supported by UCL, Fastly, Bytemark Hosting, and other partners.
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
