Tropical Storm Calvin Forecast Advisory



352 
WTPZ23 KNHC 130849 CCA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2023

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII 

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 123.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 138.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 145.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ







TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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