Tropical Storm Roslyn Public Advisory



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 202342
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central 
Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this 
system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for 
portions of these areas later tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was 
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.4 West. Roslyn is 
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the 
west-northwest and northwest is expected later tonight and Friday, 
followed by a north-northwestward and northward motion on Saturday 
and Saturday night. On the forecast track, Roslyn is expected to 
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday, 
then approach the west-central coast of Mexico on Saturday night and 
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is 
expected to become a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL:  The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals 
of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 
to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of 
Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and 
southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and 
landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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TROPICAL STORM KARL







TROPICAL STORM KARL

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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