Hurricane Grace Public Advisory



000
WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... 
...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall.  On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air 
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven



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HURRICANE LINDA







HURRICANE LINDA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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