Hurricane Ida Public Advisory



000
WTNT34 KNHC 282353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 87.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 26.6 North, longitude 87.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday.  A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Ida will 
continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico 
tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of 
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or 
evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of 
Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum 
sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.  
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and 
Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it 
makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday.  Rapid weakening 
is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).  

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 969 mb (28.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning.  These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday.  Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba
this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away
from the island.  Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through
this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF:  Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory



000
WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... 
...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall.  On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air 
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven



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