Tropical Depression Dolores Public Advisory



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 200001 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dolores 
Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Corrected header 

...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE 
OF NAYARIT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 83 MI...133 KM NW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 78 MI...126 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores 
was located inland near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 104.2 West. 
Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), 
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On 
the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland 
across the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Durango.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday.

Surface observations indicate that the minimum central pressure has 
risen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue 
over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto 
Vallarta through this evening.  

RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Dolores will produce heavy rainfall 
of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across 
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, 
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. 
This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto



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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE







POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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