TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E







TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E


Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions
. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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Local Statement for Laura (New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA)



437 
WTUS84 KLIX 241840
HLSLIX
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-250245-

Tropical Storm Marco Local Statement Special Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service New Orleans LA  AL142020
140 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

This product covers Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi

**Watches and Warnings Will Be Issued Later This Afternoon for 
Laura** 


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - Watches and Warnings Will Be Issued Later This Afternoon for 
      Laura

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles southeast of New Orleans LA or about 120 miles 
      south-southeast of Gulfport MS
    - 28.7N 88.6W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Marco has weakened however our focus now turns to
Tropical Storm Laura. Products for Laura will be issued later this
afternoon. Stay vigilant and complete any preparations for Laura's
potential impacts.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Minor coastal flooding is ongoing and watches or warnings will be
for Laura will be issued later this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Updates provided later this afternoon.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Updates provided later this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in New Orleans LA for Laura will be sent by 5 
PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$



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HURRICANE GENEVIEVE







HURRICANE GENEVIEVE


Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions
. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




Source link

Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory



712 
WTPZ35 KNHC 141432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 131.9W
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 131.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). 
A slow drift toward the west-southwest is expected today, followed 
by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




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