Local Statement for Nine (Puerto Rico / V.I.)



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WTCA82 TJSJ 290314
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-291115-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service San Juan PR  AL092020
1114 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

This product covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

**TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Interior, 
      Culebra, Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North 
      Central, Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and 
      Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, St Croix, St.Thomas...St. 
      John...and Adjacent Islands, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 510 miles east-southeast of San Juan PR or about 420 
      miles east-southeast of Saint Croix VI
    - 14.6N 59.4W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 25 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The official track has been shifted slightly south with similar 
intensity forecast, but little change in impacts is anticipated. A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Strong convection is now only 325 miles away. The disturbance
is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. 
This system is expected to bring flooding rains across Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. Virgin Islands, and generate possible life threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding, particularly across 
mainland Puerto Rico. Weather, marine and coastal conditions are 
expected to deteriorate starting on Wednesday afternoon with inclement 
weather continuing through Thursday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in 
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and 
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, 
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while 
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood 
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple 
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed 
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. 
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with 
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. 
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited 
to significant impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across 
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Potential impacts in 
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along 
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas 
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread 
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts 
across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Potential impacts 
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. If you
are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from tropical
systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being officially
recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect 
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before 
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations 
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical 
storm force wind.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for 
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to 
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in San Juan PR around 2 AM AST, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$



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TROPICAL STORM GONZALO







TROPICAL STORM GONZALO

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




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