Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory



000
WTNT35 KNHC 161155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 66.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 66.5 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower 
north-northeastward motion on Saturday.  A faster northeastward 
motion is expected late in the weekend.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on 
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on
Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches.  This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the 
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.  Swells are 
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later 
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of 
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water 
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



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Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory



000
WTNT34 KNHC 041155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been extended 
northward along the Georgia and South Carolina coast to the South 
Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's 
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's 
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby 
is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the 
Florida Big Bend coast.  Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday 
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.  A wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently
reported at Sand Key in the Florida Keys.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with 
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical 
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical 
storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next 
several hours, in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the 
coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night. 

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of 
northern Florida through Friday morning.  This rainfall will likely 
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with 
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning.  This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through this morning.
This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF:  Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday.  Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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