Taifun and Hurrican info page

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located offshore of
the coast the Carolinas is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical
cyclone development and this system is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system off the United States
east coast by Sunday night. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook
issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 UTC Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Fri morning. SW gap
winds will develop ahead of the front Thu evening, then winds 
will increase to minimal gale force late Thu night, then subside 
below gale force around sunrise Fri. Strong winds will linger 
over the northern Gulf of California Fri, then gradually decrease
over the northern Gulf as the ridge W of Baja breaks down. 
Otherwise, light to moderate N to NW winds will prevail over the 
central and southern Gulf during the next several days, with 
daytime heating leading to onshore seabreezes along much of the 
coastline of mainland Mexico.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 08N73W to 
06N80W to 07N92W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 08N101W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is observed from 03N to 08N E of 84W and from 04N to 09N between
126W and 134W. Scattered to moderate convection is present from 
05N to 11N between 104W and 110W and from 09N to 11N between 110W
and 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad high pressure ridge extends SE into the region from near
32N132W across the Baja California offshore waters to the waters
S of Cabo Corrientes near 14N106W. NW winds off the coast of 
Baja California between the ridge and lower pressure over the 
Gulf of California will be fresh to locally strong today and 
tonight along the coast the coast of Baja California Sur and near
Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft can be expected for 
these locations in mixed S swell and NW wind waves. Elsewhere, 
moderate to occasionally fresh NW flow will prevail over waters 
farther W of Baja California through Thu with seas generally 5-7 
ft. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop off the southern 
California coast Fri and weaken the ridge Fri and Sat. This will 
allow winds off Baja California to diminish to gentle with 
gradually subsiding seas into the weekend. Gentle manly westerly 
winds will prevail across the remaining Mexican waters east of 
Manzanillo for the next several days, where seas currently near 5
ft will build to between 6 and 8 ft Fri and Sat as long period S
to SW swell arrives in the region.

Ongoing agricultural and forest fires in central and southeast 
Mexico continue to produce smoke across the region and may 
occasionally reduce visibilities over the adjacent offshore 
waters. The densest smoke appears to be originating from fires in
the Mexican State of Guerrero.

Gulf of California: Please refer to the Special Features Section
regarding minimal gale force winds expected over the northern
Gulf of California Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fires over Central America continue to produce smoke across the 
region and may occasionally reduce visibilities off the coast of 
Guatemala and El Salvador.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
will decrease to moderate by tonight. Winds will then diminish to
gentle by late week as high pressure N of Central America shifts
E.

Elsewhere, light to moderate winds will persist through Sat
night. A significant Southern Hemisphere S to SW swell event 
will move into the Ecuador offshore waters Thu and propagate 
northward across the region through Sat night. Seas will build to
7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands by Thu night with a peak wave
period around 20 seconds. This swell will produce dangerous surf
conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South
America through the end of this week, and could produce areas of
significant beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure ridge extends SE from 32N132W across the 
northern waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will 
prevail through Thu south of the ridge axis with seas generally 
5-7 ft. As the ridge weakens Fri and Sat, wind speeds S of the
ridge will diminish slightly in response to the weakening 
pressure gradient.

Low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 23N147W 
is weakening. This has allowed winds and seas for the far NW
portion of the discussion area to subside.

Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will arrive in 
the far southern waters today and steadily propagate northward 
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will build
to 12 ft south of the Equator between 95W and 110W on Thu with 8
ft seas spreading as far north as 08N by Fri night. Most of the 
waters S of 20N and E of 125W will have combined seas of 8 ft or 
greater by Mon morning.

$$
CAM

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060935
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
535 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-05N between 14W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is 
from 04N-06S between 23W-50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the central 
Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough
extends from the SE Gulf near 23N90W to Guatemala near 16N92W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-24N 
between 86W-93W. Isolated moderate convection is also over he
Florida Keys and S Florida. In the upper levels, a trough is over
the western Gulf enhancing convection. 

The cold front will weaken and drift southward today. A ridge 
will build northeast of the region through mid week. A trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to locally 
strong winds in the SW Gulf through Thu. Smoke and haze from 
ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in 
the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize,
Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, and W Honduras. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also over N Colombia. In the upper levels,
a ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture.

The gradient between high pressure northeast of the region near 
28N56W and low pressure in Colombia will support fresh to strong 
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras through Tue. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural 
fires could reduce visibilities north of Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N55W.
A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N22W to 
28N25W to 28N32W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic 
near 32N16W.

High pressure centered near 27N55W will shift eastward and weaken
through Tue. A weakening cold front will move into the northern 
waters tonight and continue southward through Tue. High pressure 
will build north of the region Wed through Thu night. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa