000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 UTC Wed May 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Fri morning. SW gap winds will develop ahead of the front Thu evening, then winds will increase to minimal gale force late Thu night, then subside below gale force around sunrise Fri. Strong winds will linger over the northern Gulf of California Fri, then gradually decrease over the northern Gulf as the ridge W of Baja breaks down. Otherwise, light to moderate N to NW winds will prevail over the central and southern Gulf during the next several days, with daytime heating leading to onshore seabreezes along much of the coastline of mainland Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 08N73W to 06N80W to 07N92W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 08N101W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 08N E of 84W and from 04N to 09N between 126W and 134W. Scattered to moderate convection is present from 05N to 11N between 104W and 110W and from 09N to 11N between 110W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends SE into the region from near 32N132W across the Baja California offshore waters to the waters S of Cabo Corrientes near 14N106W. NW winds off the coast of Baja California between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California will be fresh to locally strong today and tonight along the coast the coast of Baja California Sur and near Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft can be expected for these locations in mixed S swell and NW wind waves. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh NW flow will prevail over waters farther W of Baja California through Thu with seas generally 5-7 ft. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop off the southern California coast Fri and weaken the ridge Fri and Sat. This will allow winds off Baja California to diminish to gentle with gradually subsiding seas into the weekend. Gentle manly westerly winds will prevail across the remaining Mexican waters east of Manzanillo for the next several days, where seas currently near 5 ft will build to between 6 and 8 ft Fri and Sat as long period S to SW swell arrives in the region. Ongoing agricultural and forest fires in central and southeast Mexico continue to produce smoke across the region and may occasionally reduce visibilities over the adjacent offshore waters. The densest smoke appears to be originating from fires in the Mexican State of Guerrero. Gulf of California: Please refer to the Special Features Section regarding minimal gale force winds expected over the northern Gulf of California Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fires over Central America continue to produce smoke across the region and may occasionally reduce visibilities off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will decrease to moderate by tonight. Winds will then diminish to gentle by late week as high pressure N of Central America shifts E. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds will persist through Sat night. A significant Southern Hemisphere S to SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters Thu and propagate northward across the region through Sat night. Seas will build to 7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands by Thu night with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This swell will produce dangerous surf conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South America through the end of this week, and could produce areas of significant beach erosion and minor coastal flooding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure ridge extends SE from 32N132W across the northern waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail through Thu south of the ridge axis with seas generally 5-7 ft. As the ridge weakens Fri and Sat, wind speeds S of the ridge will diminish slightly in response to the weakening pressure gradient. Low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 23N147W is weakening. This has allowed winds and seas for the far NW portion of the discussion area to subside. Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will arrive in the far southern waters today and steadily propagate northward through the end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will build to 12 ft south of the Equator between 95W and 110W on Thu with 8 ft seas spreading as far north as 08N by Fri night. Most of the waters S of 20N and E of 125W will have combined seas of 8 ft or greater by Mon morning. $$ CAM
Automatic Regional Weather Forecast in Hong Kong & Pearl River Delta Region
