Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 011756 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.


ASCAT data indicate that the 1008 mb low pressure system located 
over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N93W has become a
little better defined today. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 23.5N. This system is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of 
Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves 
inland early next week. The system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless 
of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy 
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the 
next few days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook 
at for more information.


A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 14N 
southward. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong 
convection is seen from 01N-07N between 38W-47W. The wave is 
collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the
analysis along 23W from 12N southward. The wave is collocated 
with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. No 
significant convection is noted at this time.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea 
near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends along 04N between 25W-
40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side 
of the ITCZ between 31W-38W. Additionally, scattered showers and 
tstorms are seen from 08N-10N between 51W-56W.


Deep layered ridging continues over the Gulf of Mexico, except 
for the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, where a 1008 mb 
surface low is producing scattered to widespread shower and 
thunderstorm activity. See section above for details. Elsewhere, 
isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the NE Gulf, north of 
28.5N and east of 87W. This activity is occurring to the south 
of an E-W stationary front that is located inland along 
Florida's border with Georgia and Alabama. Gentle to moderate 
east to southeast winds will persist across the northern Gulf 
through Wed night.


Mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean, whereas
mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers prevail east of a line 
from the Virgin Islands to the ABC Islands, including the Leeward 
Islands. Rainfall at Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American 
Temperature and Precipitation Table, was 2.43 inches during the 
24 hour period ending at 01/1200 UTC. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the monsoon trough is seen in the far 
SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also seen near the coast of Belize and Yucatan 
from 17N-20N, west of 86W. The remainder of the central and 
western Caribbean is free of significant showers.

A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to fresh trades across 
most of the Caribbean through the weekend. The active weather
over and east of Belize and Yucatan is associated with a surface
low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Enhanced showers and tstorms
are possible west of 86W through tonight before the low pulls the
moisture west of the Caribbean basin.


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N78W and extends 
SW into southern Georgia near 31N81W. A squall line with 
thunderstorms is accelerating out ahead of the front oriented 
from 32N72W to 30.5N73W to 30.5N77W as of 1600 UTC. These 
thunderstorms could contain gusty winds through this afternoon 
north of 29N between 69W-77W. Aside from this moderately strong 
convection, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are north of 
28N between 69W and the northeast coast of Florida.

An upper level trough axis extends from 31N55W to the Virgin
Islands. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms continue over the
area that is enclosed by the points 14N60W to 19N64W to 30N50W to
23N43W to 14N60W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the
eastern and central Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high near

A ridge along 29N will shift east-southeast this weekend as a 
weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes 
stationary. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters 
Mon night through Tue night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions 
are expected elsewhere over the forecast area.

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