000 AXNT20 KNHC 011756 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ASCAT data indicate that the 1008 mb low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N93W has become a little better defined today. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 23.5N. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 14N southward. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-07N between 38W-47W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 23W from 12N southward. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends along 04N between 25W- 40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-38W. Additionally, scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 08N-10N between 51W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging continues over the Gulf of Mexico, except for the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, where a 1008 mb surface low is producing scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. See section above for details. Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the NE Gulf, north of 28.5N and east of 87W. This activity is occurring to the south of an E-W stationary front that is located inland along Florida's border with Georgia and Alabama. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist across the northern Gulf through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean, whereas mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers prevail east of a line from the Virgin Islands to the ABC Islands, including the Leeward Islands. Rainfall at Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Table, was 2.43 inches during the 24 hour period ending at 01/1200 UTC. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is seen in the far SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the coast of Belize and Yucatan from 17N-20N, west of 86W. The remainder of the central and western Caribbean is free of significant showers. A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through the weekend. The active weather over and east of Belize and Yucatan is associated with a surface low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Enhanced showers and tstorms are possible west of 86W through tonight before the low pulls the moisture west of the Caribbean basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N78W and extends SW into southern Georgia near 31N81W. A squall line with thunderstorms is accelerating out ahead of the front oriented from 32N72W to 30.5N73W to 30.5N77W as of 1600 UTC. These thunderstorms could contain gusty winds through this afternoon north of 29N between 69W-77W. Aside from this moderately strong convection, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are north of 28N between 69W and the northeast coast of Florida. An upper level trough axis extends from 31N55W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms continue over the area that is enclosed by the points 14N60W to 19N64W to 30N50W to 23N43W to 14N60W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the eastern and central Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N40W. A ridge along 29N will shift east-southeast this weekend as a weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen