000 WTNT33 KNHC 230551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 200 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 ...CENTER OF BRET NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for... * Dominica * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Bret. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.9 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea today and Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Grantly Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) in thunderstorm activity well to the east of Bret's center. Tropical storm conditions are also still being reported on St. Lucia and Martinique. The minimum central pressure measured from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible. SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg