322 WTNT41 KNHC 211445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this may be generous. The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system should then accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than 10 inches of rain have fallen in spots. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado