Taifun and Hurrican info page

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... 
...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall.  On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes
landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over
the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air 
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110002 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A... 
Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected direction of motion in summary section.

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from 
San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system 
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue tonight.  A turn back toward the 
west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a 
west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days.  On 
the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the 
southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near 
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern 
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 
day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm 
later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts 
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 
aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km), 
mainly northeast of the center.  During the past few hours, a 
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) 
were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on 
the western end of St. Croix.  A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was 
reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart