Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory



000
WTNT34 KNHC 041155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been extended 
northward along the Georgia and South Carolina coast to the South 
Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's 
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's 
River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.2 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby 
is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the 
Florida Big Bend coast.  Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday 
after Debby moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.  A wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently
reported at Sand Key in the Florida Keys.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with 
tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical 
storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical 
storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next 
several hours, in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the 
coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night. 

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of 
northern Florida through Friday morning.  This rainfall will likely 
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with 
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning.  This potentially historic rainfall will
likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized higher amounts, will be possible through this morning.
This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia.

SURF:  Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through Monday.  Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle
of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Source link

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA







TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

Link to video describing cone graphic

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in

tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.




Source link