Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 080930

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 UTC Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

A cold front will approach the northern Gulf Fri morning. SW gap
winds will develop ahead of the front Thu evening, then winds 
will increase to minimal gale force late Thu night, then subside 
below gale force around sunrise Fri. Strong winds will linger 
over the northern Gulf of California Fri, then gradually decrease
over the northern Gulf as the ridge W of Baja breaks down. 
Otherwise, light to moderate N to NW winds will prevail over the 
central and southern Gulf during the next several days, with 
daytime heating leading to onshore seabreezes along much of the 
coastline of mainland Mexico.


A trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 08N73W to 
06N80W to 07N92W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 08N101W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is observed from 03N to 08N E of 84W and from 04N to 09N between
126W and 134W. Scattered to moderate convection is present from 
05N to 11N between 104W and 110W and from 09N to 11N between 110W
and 118W.



A broad high pressure ridge extends SE into the region from near
32N132W across the Baja California offshore waters to the waters
S of Cabo Corrientes near 14N106W. NW winds off the coast of 
Baja California between the ridge and lower pressure over the 
Gulf of California will be fresh to locally strong today and 
tonight along the coast the coast of Baja California Sur and near
Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft can be expected for 
these locations in mixed S swell and NW wind waves. Elsewhere, 
moderate to occasionally fresh NW flow will prevail over waters 
farther W of Baja California through Thu with seas generally 5-7 
ft. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop off the southern 
California coast Fri and weaken the ridge Fri and Sat. This will 
allow winds off Baja California to diminish to gentle with 
gradually subsiding seas into the weekend. Gentle manly westerly 
winds will prevail across the remaining Mexican waters east of 
Manzanillo for the next several days, where seas currently near 5
ft will build to between 6 and 8 ft Fri and Sat as long period S
to SW swell arrives in the region.

Ongoing agricultural and forest fires in central and southeast 
Mexico continue to produce smoke across the region and may 
occasionally reduce visibilities over the adjacent offshore 
waters. The densest smoke appears to be originating from fires in
the Mexican State of Guerrero.

Gulf of California: Please refer to the Special Features Section
regarding minimal gale force winds expected over the northern
Gulf of California Thu night.


Fires over Central America continue to produce smoke across the 
region and may occasionally reduce visibilities off the coast of 
Guatemala and El Salvador.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
will decrease to moderate by tonight. Winds will then diminish to
gentle by late week as high pressure N of Central America shifts

Elsewhere, light to moderate winds will persist through Sat
night. A significant Southern Hemisphere S to SW swell event 
will move into the Ecuador offshore waters Thu and propagate 
northward across the region through Sat night. Seas will build to
7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands by Thu night with a peak wave
period around 20 seconds. This swell will produce dangerous surf
conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South
America through the end of this week, and could produce areas of
significant beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.


A strong high pressure ridge extends SE from 32N132W across the 
northern waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will 
prevail through Thu south of the ridge axis with seas generally 
5-7 ft. As the ridge weakens Fri and Sat, wind speeds S of the
ridge will diminish slightly in response to the weakening 
pressure gradient.

Low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 23N147W 
is weakening. This has allowed winds and seas for the far NW
portion of the discussion area to subside.

Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will arrive in 
the far southern waters today and steadily propagate northward 
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will build
to 12 ft south of the Equator between 95W and 110W on Thu with 8
ft seas spreading as far north as 08N by Fri night. Most of the 
waters S of 20N and E of 125W will have combined seas of 8 ft or 
greater by Mon morning.


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