Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 060935

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
535 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-05N between 14W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is 
from 04N-06S between 23W-50W. 


A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the central 
Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough
extends from the SE Gulf near 23N90W to Guatemala near 16N92W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-24N 
between 86W-93W. Isolated moderate convection is also over he
Florida Keys and S Florida. In the upper levels, a trough is over
the western Gulf enhancing convection. 

The cold front will weaken and drift southward today. A ridge 
will build northeast of the region through mid week. A trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to locally 
strong winds in the SW Gulf through Thu. Smoke and haze from 
ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in 
the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. 


15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize,
Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, and W Honduras. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also over N Colombia. In the upper levels,
a ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture.

The gradient between high pressure northeast of the region near 
28N56W and low pressure in Colombia will support fresh to strong 
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras through Tue. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural 
fires could reduce visibilities north of Honduras. 


A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N55W.
A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N22W to 
28N25W to 28N32W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic 
near 32N16W.

High pressure centered near 27N55W will shift eastward and weaken
through Tue. A weakening cold front will move into the northern 
waters tonight and continue southward through Tue. High pressure 
will build north of the region Wed through Thu night. 

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